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"IT'S A NICELY DESIGNED GAME AS LONG AS YOU DON'T WANT ANY MEANING IN YOUR LIFE."-TIM

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Author Topic: Do we know how many copies UA sold so far?  (Read 616 times)

MasterLobar

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Do we know how many copies UA sold so far?
« on: February 05, 2019, 07:55:27 AM »

Reviews are bad as we know, but they do not always correlate with commercial success. Highly acclaimed games may be low sellers (see SS2 for example), and vice versa.

So maybe the game sold better than its reception suggests? (I doubt it, but it is possible)
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Nyast

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Re: Do we know how many copies UA sold so far?
« Reply #1 on: February 05, 2019, 12:50:21 PM »

SteamSpy estimates around 8000 owners ( source: http://steamspy.com/dev/OtherSide+Entertainment ).

However the amount of refunds is probably significant, so I'd say maybe around 5000 ?

Edit: I'm not sure if "owners" also include free keys received for KS backers. If that is the case, the amount of sales might be even lower..
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MasterLobar

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Re: Do we know how many copies UA sold so far?
« Reply #2 on: February 05, 2019, 01:00:14 PM »

What I was thinking about lately: Publishing deal with 505 almost certainly gives 505 the right to all sales until they recoup their investment.

8,000 copies...for simplicity let's say 10,000 with no refunds at a price of ~ $20 means means ~ $200,000 of sales in total. That's very likely less than 505 chipped in.

We can also assume Underworld Overlord sales are negligible at this point.

That means OS isn't making any money right now, Starbreeze will likely default on their commitment for SS3 (see thread in General section), and no other project is going to be completed any time soon.

So unless OS owners spend significant amounts out of their own pockets to pay the bills in the coming months, we'll hit the end of the road pretty soon. Simple maths.
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Dewi Morgan

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Re: Do we know how many copies UA sold so far?
« Reply #3 on: February 05, 2019, 08:43:00 PM »

I admit, it's been a concern for me for a while, and I do worry for them.
None have sounded particularly concerned that I've seen, though.
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"re: kickstarter for the love of god I never want to do that again for video games." - Chris Siegel

TrenchKnife

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Re: Do we know how many copies UA sold so far?
« Reply #4 on: February 07, 2019, 10:02:05 PM »

Market results have always baffled me. Even here in a backed project, the intended goals hardly reflect outcome. We know what results to expect from the kickstart levels; nothing, partial, or all. but of what ?  well ... nothing at first, much more later, and in the end we expect the highest aspirations. Number of copies souled is irrelevant; it's all about the loot ... where's my box set?

(LOL ... that was more fun than then key strokes)
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Nyast

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Re: Do we know how many copies UA sold so far?
« Reply #5 on: February 10, 2019, 07:37:59 PM »

What I was thinking about lately: Publishing deal with 505 almost certainly gives 505 the right to all sales until they recoup their investment.

8,000 copies...for simplicity let's say 10,000 with no refunds at a price of ~ $20 means means ~ $200,000 of sales in total. That's very likely less than 505 chipped in.

Even assuming 10K sales at $20 with no refunds, you're pretty far off. Steam already takes 30%, so at best that'd be $140K.
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Nyast

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Re: Do we know how many copies UA sold so far?
« Reply #6 on: February 10, 2019, 07:40:00 PM »

I admit, it's been a concern for me for a while, and I do worry for them.
None have sounded particularly concerned that I've seen, though.

They weren't concerned about the release of UA either, despite pretty much everybody ringing alarm bells 6 months prior to the release.
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MasterLobar

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Re: Do we know how many copies UA sold so far?
« Reply #7 on: February 10, 2019, 08:13:05 PM »

Even assuming 10K sales at $20 with no refunds, you're pretty far off. Steam already takes 30%, so at best that'd be $140K.

In the end, it doesn't matter much, because it is safe to assume the publishing deal allows 505 to claim all revenues until they recoup their investment, which likely was several hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Whether the actual revenue is $100k, $200k or $300k is irrelevant. OS won't see a penny.
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Nyast

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Re: Do we know how many copies UA sold so far?
« Reply #8 on: February 11, 2019, 12:41:57 PM »

Maybe, maybe not. The deal could be royalty-based too. In any case I agree they're far, very very far from the game being profitable.
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MasterLobar

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Re: Do we know how many copies UA sold so far?
« Reply #9 on: February 11, 2019, 01:17:22 PM »

And, more importantly, far from generating the amount of revenue needed to sustain operations.
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MasterLobar

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Re: Do we know how many copies UA sold so far?
« Reply #10 on: February 12, 2019, 07:57:18 AM »

Here we are, Starbreeze cancelled the deal.

Not only does OS have zero revenues for the foreseeable future, they also have to pay back what Starbreeze paid them so far.

https://www.starbreeze.com/2019/02/starbreeze-sells-back-system-shock-3-publishing-rights-to-otherside-entertainment/

I'm ready to go on the record: It's over.
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MasterLobar

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Re: Do we know how many copies UA sold so far?
« Reply #11 on: February 12, 2019, 08:35:57 AM »

Maybe, maybe not. The deal could be royalty-based too.

Given how lopsided the deal with Starbreeze obviously was (they could cancel without penalty and even get all their money back), it seems safe to say that the deal with 505 isn't royalty-based and 505 gets all the revenues until they recoup their investment (probably plus a substantial margin).

So let's recap. OS...
- has zero revenues for the foreseeable future
- has lost its publishing deal for it's only game in the pipeline
- has to repay Starbreeze for what they invested so far in SS3
- has to provide promised fixes/updates for UA
- has botched its only major release so far
- has ruined its reputation in the RPG community with UA

Good luck with finding a new investor.
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Nyast

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Re: Do we know how many copies UA sold so far?
« Reply #12 on: February 12, 2019, 09:18:32 AM »

Yeah they're in serious trouble.

The problem I see is that even if they still (don't ask me how, maybe unknown investors, maybe savings) have some money left, I doubt they can deliver SS3 to the full original vision. It makes sense that they'd have to downscale / rush to release, just like they did for UA. Therefore the chance of SS3 becoming an abomination just like UA has just increased tenfold.

Not that I really care anymore. I'll only buy SS3 if it gets great reviews. Unlike UA, I didn't Kickstart it, so I'll just wait & see. But unfortunately if Otherside had to shut down due to its financial and development trouble, I won't tear up.
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MasterLobar

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Re: Do we know how many copies UA sold so far?
« Reply #13 on: February 12, 2019, 09:50:54 AM »

Yes, of course, the unknown unknowns...they could have other investors we don't know of or get a bank loan. But these sources of funding, if they exist, can certainly not replace Starbreeze's $12 million, so a downscaling of ambitions for SS3 as you mention is a real possibility.

It's also obvious that they were taken by surprise by Starbreeze's demise. Walter's statement doesn't mention any new investors nor any hint were the millions needed to finish SS3 (it's "more than halfway completed") might come from.

Note that "halfway completed" also means the amount they have to pay back to Starbreeze is likely in the millions.

For a change, I really don't blame them for that. Starbreeze shares were at an alltime high last summer and still seemed solid until November. From there it went downhill very quickly.

That didn't leave OS much time to look for a new investor to replace - so all in all my guess is they have a significant funding gap and unless they find a new investor soon, they will not be able to continue.
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Flug

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Re: Do we know how many copies UA sold so far?
« Reply #14 on: February 12, 2019, 11:06:02 AM »

We don't know what the situation is. A guy on the Steam forums has done some digging based on sec filings etc and uncovered the fact that Otherside have bought back the right to SS. We don't now the terms of that - whether it was preferential, an activated clause, or a fire sale etc

It's not necessarily a head-ache. Chris has said previously they were ok financially, so we really don't know (and we shoudn't confuse day-to-day company baances, with specific financing deals, share-holdings, rights issues etc). It could be god-awful, it could be fine.

In short, we don't know (unless there are very recent filings I'm not aware of)
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